< Previous88 WORKFORCE 2024 city in top-ranked Maricopa County, has placed an impressive 56 new projects since 2019 in Site Selection’s database of major corporate investments, and racked up $1.56 billion in capital investments during the most recent fiscal year, according to Jaye O’Donnell, economic development director for the city. “What we have heard from companies who have located here or expanded here is that Maricopa County in general is a really great place to recruit talent,” says O’Donnell. “They’re finding talent that exists here already, and if they need to bring in additional talent it’s easy for them to recruit employees to Arizona and then to retain them here.” And why is that? “Skilled employees who are in Arizona,” believes O’Donnell, “enjoy that type of lifestyle that Arizona has to offer. It’s an easy state to find a work life balance. You can work hard and play hard. You have national sports teams. You have outdoor recreation and adventure activities. We also have some of the best golf in the country and a really good performing arts and music scene.” The Phoenix region boasts three professional sports teams — the Cardinals of the NFL, baseball’s World Series runner-up Diamondbacks, and the Coyotes of the NHL — all of which boast dedicated fan bases. The region’s desert landscape supports unique recreational activities from rock climbing to rafting to off-road biking and hiking, all immensely attractive not just to the coveted younger generations but also to the types of workers recruited by companies such as Virgin Galactic, XNERGY, Hyundai, Amazon, Google, Benchmark Electronics and JX Nippon, all of which have made investments in Mesa over the past fiscal year. Different Strokes, Different Folks According to Lightcast, Maricopa County ranked No. 3 among large counties for in-migration. But, says Burns & McDonnell’s Dunbar, leveraging talent in the name of economic development is about much more than mere numbers. Texas, Georgia, Virginia and Oklahoma, she says, rank high for workforce development programs. And it gets more granular, still. “We’re going to look at the quality of the population,” Dunbar says. “When we ascertain workforce quality, we will look at crime stats, number one, because usually there’s a correlation. If you have a lot of crime or unrest, that’s going to impact a community adversely versus those that seem harmonious. We also know the regions that have drug use issues based upon CDC statistics and other types of information.” What motivates people to move, or to stay where they are, is shifting by generation. Yes, Florida and Texas, the top two states for in-migration, assess no personal income taxes. But that, says Dunbar, matters more to some than others. “The older generation, the one that’s closer to retirement, they care,” she says. “Younger kids, they’re not even paying attention to it. They’re going where they want to go because of the recreational, social, civic scenes and the weather. The side benefit to that,” she believes, “is the more population you get, the more capable you are of providing those concessions.” “Post-COVID worker migration” explains Vermont’s strong showing. Photo: Getty Images TOP 10 LARGE COUNTIES (POP. GREATER THAN 100,000) RANK COUNTY 1 Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix) 2 Collin County, TX (Dallas) 3 Travis County, TX (Austin) 4 Denton County, TX (Dallas) 5 Fort Bend County, TX (Houston) 6 Williamson County, TX (Austin) 7 Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa) 8 Lee County, FL (Fort Myers) 9 Polk County, FL (Lakeland) 10 Montgomery County, TX (Houston) Source: Lightcast 2023 Talent Attraction Scorecard90 WORKFORCE 2024 W hen the topic turns to the potential impact of artifi cial intelligence, workforce development analysts consistently liken AI’s rapid and evolving emergence to such era-defi ning phenomena as the industrial and digital revolutions. AI, experts believe, will reshape the global workplace and redefi ne how companies compete. “Make no mistake,” reads a report released in September by Boston Consulting Group, AI “is not a fl eeting by GARY DAUGHTERS AUTOMATION ASKED & ANSWERED: Five Questions About Artifi cial Intelligence WORKFORCE 2024 91 trend and will demand a reimaging of possibilities and a recalibration of strategies. As leaders come to grips with this technology, they have the opportunity to shape a legacy that will resonate far into the future.” How that might play out remains the subject of widespread conjecture. And yet another key point of consensus is that the speed and depth of AI transformation will largely be determined by workers and how they adapt to the new, mysterious and rapidly evolving technology. Here are answers to five frequently asked questions being posed by business leaders as they seek to position their workforces for the AI future. Which jobs is artificial intelligence most likely to impact? What sets AI apart from previous transformative technologies is the spread of occupations it is likely to touch. “What’s very interesting about AI is that it has the potential of having an impact on white-collar jobs and high-skilled jobs, which typically have been insulated from past technological revolutions,” said Raffaella Sadun of Harvard Business School, author of the report “Reskilling in the Age of AI,” in a recent interview with Harvard Business Review. Her analysis squares with reporting from the Pew Research Center. “Jobs with a high level of exposure to AI,” Pew’s Rakesh Kochhar reported in July, “tend to be in higher-paying fields where a college education and analytical skills can be a plus. Workers with a bachelor’s degree or more (27%) are more than twice as likely as those with a high school diploma only (12%) to see the most exposure. AI-driven business applications,” Kochhar writes, “represent a new reality for workers.” The view that AI’s impact will reach across the the global workforce is endorsed, as well, by Goldman Sachs, which weighed in with a report released last March. “We find,” said the authors, “that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating out estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation.” How do the challenges posed by AI integration stack up against the opportunities? The transformation, believes Harvard Business School’s Sadun, won’t be painless.92 WORKFORCE 2024 “From what we know from past technological revolutions,” she said in her interview, “it can take a while and it’s going to be a bumpy ride before we can really think about the revolutionary impact often mentioned in the press.” But the potential benefits, on a macro scale, are immense. “By some estimates,” reports Boston Consulting Group, “GenAI could amplify global GDP by 7% and double productivity over the next decade.” That’s why some of the world’s most forward-leaning businesses are investing heavily in AI, with a major emphasis on worker training. “Generative AI,” Forbes reported in August, “remains among the top priorities for CEOs. This was echoed in our June survey of over 2,300 C-suite leaders, [where] nearly all (97%) believe generative AI will be transformative and a game-changer for their company and industry. Right now, 44% are making big investments.” Amazon is among those leading the way, having committed $700 million to training 100,000 employees into higher skilled work through its “Upskilling 2025” initiative. The online retailer says the investment will “help pilot, launch, and scale training programs to upskill employees in our corporate offices, tech hubs, fulfillment centers, retail stores, and transportation network, providing access to skills that will help them move into more highly skilled roles within or outside of Amazon.” Where will I go to find AI-skilled workers? As the Amazon example suggests, the solution is likely to come from in- house. A recent blog post by Australian futurist Ross Dawson quotes Gabe Dalporto, CEO of Udacity, the skills training provider. “First of all,” said Dalporto, “our universities can’t turn out all the workers we’ll need for the jobs of the future, and it’s expensive. The cost of reskilling is so much less.” Reskilling, asserts the Harvard Business School study, is “a strategic imperative.” Co-author Jorge Tamayo, assistant professor in the school’s Strategy Unit, believes the stakes involved and the size of the challenge necessitate engaged leadership from the C-suite. “Usually, programs that are championed by the CEO are the ones that really work inside the company,” Tamayo told Site Selection magazine. Reskilling for AI, he said, “cannot be just an HR initiative because it’s so complex. It’s a change management initiative, not a training program. This is precisely the job of the CEO, to understand how the environment is changing, how the technology is changing, and how to connect corporate strategy with talent. You need to understand the big picture.” Beside Amazon, which companies are investing in reskilling? Dawson mentions AT&T, which launched a $1 billion, multi-year reskilling program in 2018. Known as Future Ready, the initiative, says Dawson, “is one of the private sector’s boldest investments in reskilling.” He also refers to Microsoft, whose partnership with training provider General Assembly aims to reskill some 15,000 workers. Harvard Business School cites Infosys, the India-based technology company, which it says has re-skilled 2,000 cybersecurity experts with adjacent competencies and capabilities. Vodaphone, the Harvard study reports, hopes to draw from internal talent to fill 40% of its software development needs. “Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro and Ericsson have policies, tools and IT platforms that promote reskilling resources and available jobs — as does McDonald’s, where restaurant employees WORKFORCE 2024 93 have access to an app called Archways to Opportunity that maps skills learned on the job to career paths within the company and in other industries,” the study found. “Finally,” says the report, “some companies are using reskilling to tap into broader talent pools and attract candidates who wouldn’t otherwise be considered for open positions. ICICI Bank — headquartered in Mumbai and employing more than , people — runs an intense, academy-like reskilling program that prepares graduates, often from diverse backgrounds, for frontline managerial jobs.” With whom can I partner to reskill my workforce? e options are many. In addition to Udacity and General Assembly, Silicon Valley-based Coursera is a widely recognized industry leader in delivering online skills training, boasting as it does million learners and partnerships with , institutions in countries. Coursera’s content, created in partnership with leading companies and universities, off ers training geared toward AI, cybersecurity and leadership skills. “ e skills landscape is shifting,” Coursera said in a recently released report. “In , the meteoric rise of AI will continue — with demand for related skills accelerating alongside it.” e Harvard Business School study encourages corporate leaders to work with local colleges, nonprofi ts and industry partners to develop AI- savvy talent. “Companies have tended to think of reskilling as an organization-level challenge, believing that they have to do the job by and for themselves. Instead of thinking of themselves as competitors for a limited talent pool, companies can team up to conduct joint training eff orts, which may signifi cantly attenuate some of the challenges. Coalitions of companies,” the report suggests, “may be more eff ective at the reskilling challenge than single organizations are.” In 2024, the meteoric rise of AI will continue — with demand for related skills accelerating alongside it.” — Coursera94 WORKFORCE 2024 T he Brookings Institution’s Martha Ross and Mark Muro in January examined “How federal, state, and local leaders can leverage the CHIPS and Science Act as a landmark workforce opportunity.” eir comprehensive breakdown is worth a close read by business leaders too. By special arrangement, we present here an adapted excerpt of their report. For the complete fi ndings, visit www.brookings.edu/articles/how- federal-state-and-local-leaders-can-leverage-the-chips- and-science-act-as-a-landmark- workforce-opportunity/. — Ed. e national security establishment knows last year’s $ billion CHIPS and Science Act mostly for its bold subsidies to encourage fi rms to build new semiconductor plants and thus compete with China on industrial strategy. Researchers and technology leaders, meanwhile, regard the legislation as the nation’s most signifi cant innovation bill in decades, given its authorization of higher spending targets for the nation’s innovation ecosystem. And yet, for all that, the law is something else as well, albeit underappreciated for it. Specifi cally, the CHIPS and Science Act is also a major workforce law. In this respect, the act remains under- recognized not just for its focus on higher-level STEM education, but also as a source of programs and resources for training the nation’s skilled technical workers without bachelor’s degrees — a workforce of great importance as the nation seeks to expand its high-value industrial base. The Breakdown e CHIPS and Science Act directs the investment of roughly $ billion over the next years to build up U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and more broadly support advanced manufacturing, R&D, innovation and workforce development. More specifi cally, the law encompasses two components. Division A, also known as “the CHIPS Act of ,” focuses squarely on strengthening the semiconductor industry—particularly, manufacturing, R&D and workforce development. Altogether, Division A appropriates more than $ billion in federal spending, including what may be the law’s highest-profi le provision: the CHIPS Incentives Program, which provides $ billion in incentives to build, expand, or modernize semiconductor facilities and equipment. Some $ million in appropriated resources are allotted here for a Workforce and Training Fund. Division B, “Research and Innovation,” authorizes considerably more spending (about $ billion) to support progress on broader national goals related to science, technology, commercialization and manufacturing. e CHIPS and Science Act holds out numerous by MARTHA ROSS & MARK MURO A $250 Billion Bet on America’s Workforce FEDERAL WORKFORCE PROGRAMS In June 2023, the National Science Foundation announced a collaboration with the Micron Foundation focused on education, training, equitable opportunities and experiential learning to prepare the “semiconductor workforce of the future.” Photo of Micron’s growing campus in Boise, Idaho, courtesy of Micron WORKFORCE 2024 95 and sizable opportunities for states, metro areas, and other actors to fund STEM and technician workforce development initiatives. In fact, it’s fair to say that the act likely amounts to the main event for funding such efforts in the U.S. for the next few years. The law authorizes the NSF alone to spend $13 billion for STEM education and workforce development over the next five years, or about $2.6 billion per year. By comparison, the formula funding streams supporting training and employment activities for youth, adults, and dislocated workers in Title 1 of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) totaled $3.2 billion in FY 2022 — and only a fraction of that goes directly to training. In other words, the act’s workforce resources are on par in many areas with those in the established workforce development system. 33 Programs Support STEM-related Education, Training and Outreach The 33 CHIPS and Science Act programs supporting STEM-related education, training and outreach vary in scope and focus. Stand- alone education and training programs total $2.8 billion in authorized spending. Other programs incorporate workforce development into broader goals and total much larger sums, although the amount allocated to education and training is unknown and will probably be a fairly small share. Nonetheless, the numbers involved are so large that even a small share of a budget line can be a sizable dollar figure. For example, the law authorizes $53 billion toward semiconductor-focused programs as well as $33 billion toward programs supporting innovation and manufacturing, and programs in both categories incorporate workforce development elements. Among the programs supported by the $33 billion, the newly authorized Directorate for Technology, Innovation and Partnerships (TIP) within the NSF received $20 billion. One of TIP’s flagship efforts will be the Regional Innovation Engines program, authorized at $3.3 billion. Within the Department of Commerce, the Regional Technology and Innovation Hubs (Tech Hubs) program — authorized at $10 billion and appropriated at $500 million — prominently incorporates workforce development into its goal of developing globally competitive technology and innovation hubs. As of August 2023, the CHIPS for America program had received more than 450 statements of interest from companies across 42 states seeking incentives to invest in semiconductor facilities. For its part, the NSF has already awarded Regional Innovation Engines planning grants to 44 regional coalitions across the country and is now considering 16 coalitions as finalists — representing places such as Fargo, North Dakota; Lexington, Kentucky; Albuquerque, New Mexico.; El Paso, Texas; East Lansing, Michigan; and Kissimmee, Florida. The funding announcement noted the NSF’s particular interest in regions without well-established innovation ecosystems, suggesting they are hoping to invest in places other than superstar metro areas 44 NSF ENGINES DEVELOPMENT AWARDS States and Territories covered by at least one award In May 2023, the NSF awarded the first-ever NSF Engines Development Awards to 44 unique teams spanning 46 U.S. states and territories.96 WORKFORCE 2024 PRIVATE SECTOR PLAYS BIG ROLE IN GETTING CYBER- FOCUSED “The field of cybersecurity may offer some lessons in developing and executing a workforce strategy for specific technological fields,” write the Brookings Institution’s Martha Ross and Mark Muro, noting the July 2023 release by the White House of the National Cyber Workforce and Education Strategy (NCWES). Among the reasons cyber stands as a model is its plethora of stakeholders that have already demonstrated their commitment to the NCWES through their actions and partnerships, said the White House. As this excerpt from the announcement notes, a number of private-sector organizations have stepped up: Check Point Software Technologies committed to training 1 million individuals in cybersecurity skills by 2028 through its MIND Cyber Security Training Program, which offers free training kits to all educational organizations in the United States. Microsoft and Black Tech Street have announced an unprecedented long-term alliance for Historic Greenwood, the neighborhood in Tulsa, Oklahoma, given the moniker “Black Wall Street” by Booker T. Washington. Dubbed “The Digital Transformation of Black Wall Street to Black Tech Street,” the alliance aims to restore Greenwood’s position as a national hub for Black talent and innovation with an initial focus on cyber. Microsoft also is partnering with Last Mile Education Fund, Whatcom Community College (in the State of Washington) and the American Association of Community Colleges to achieve its goal of helping skill and recruit into the cybersecurity workforce 250,000 people by 2025. To date, this effort has supported over 379 community colleges in 48 out of 50 states. In collaboration with the Consortium of Cybersecurity Clinics, Google. org has committed more than $20 million to support the creation and expansion of cybersecurity clinics at 20 higher education institutions following the launch of the Google Cybersecurity Certificate program. Mastercard will further its support of equipping American girls with foundational cyber skills through its commitment to educate 5 million students by 2025 with its flagship STEM education program, Girls4Tech™. Mastercard will also support access to free cybersecurity education, trainings, and resources for up to 10 million micro, small and medium businesses by 2025. Lightcast will provide quarterly data announcements on the size of the cyber talent needs, providing a more comprehensive, up-to-date picture of the cyber labor market. In addition, Lightcast will develop a skills-based hiring toolkit for employers to help companies implement best practices in developing their cyber workforce. CrowdStrike will fill 300+ internship positions, fund 10 $10,000 scholarships, expand upon its successful SkillBridge apprenticeship program and continue to offer its “return-to-work” program focused on caregivers by Q1 2025. SAP will further its commitment to help close the cybersecurity skills gap by expanding its two- year Global Security Early Talent program. This builds on SAP’s digital skills initiative goal to upskill 2 million learners worldwide with technology skills by the end of 2025. Martha Ross, Senior Fellow, Brookings Metro WORKFORCE 2024 97 such as Seattle, San Jose and Boston. Regarding the Tech Hubs program, the act calls for “geographic diversity and representation” in awards, specifying that at least one-third of the grants should “significantly benefit a small and rural community” and at least two-thirds should benefit “underserved communities in and near metropolitan areas.” The Commerce Department recently designated 31 regions as Tech Hubs and awarded strategy development awards to consortia in another 18 areas. Designated places include Tulsa, Oklahoma; Kansas City, Missouri; Baltimore, Maryland; Birmingham, Alabama; Baton Rouge, Louisiana; and Reno, Nevada. Twenty legislative provisions support STEM education and workforce development as a goal in itself. They include programs for K-12, undergraduate (including community college) and graduate students as well as internships, fellowships and informal learning activities. A handful focus on specific technologies, such as quantum networking, cybersecurity, clean energy and nuclear technology. Another Department of Commerce program — the Distressed Area Recompete Pilot Program — targets persistently economically distressed communities to create and connect people to good jobs. It targets communities with below-average employment rates for people of prime working age (25 to 54). Commerce received more than 560 applications in response to a June 2023 Notice of Funding Opportunity, and in December, the agency designated 22 finalists and awarded 24 strategy development grants. Private Sector Leadership The Tech Hubs and Regional Innovation Engines programs require awardees to fully integrate technology development and workforce efforts. Meanwhile, the semiconductor incentives program takes a new approach to supporting workforce development by giving private sector actors decision- making authority over funding decisions and encouraging state and local governments to make matching investments in education and training. This approach is a promising model that marks a break from “train and pray” scenarios in which workforce investment decisions remain divorced from job placement and hiring activities. Instead, the companies receiving the CHIPS and Science Act’s manufacturing subsidies will determine how to support related workforce development efforts — a direct application of the principle that workforce development should be driven by employer demand. Of course, employers won’t be able to do it alone. They will need to partner with area organizations such as community colleges, workforce development boards, apprenticeship programs, unions, nonprofit training providers, and others. What’s more, the funding opportunity for manufacturing incentives for commercial fabrication facilities explicitly prioritizes applications that include state and local incentives benefiting regional semiconductor ecosystems, not just one firm. Rather than only tax breaks for companies, the CHIPS office is looking for incentives such as workforce and education investments. Several states have already announced investments in semiconductor-related education and training, including Minnesota, Michigan, Arizona, New York and Ohio. The CHIPS and Science Act stands out not just as an international security, technology, or innovation strategy landmark, but as a watershed in U.S. workforce development. Once-in-a- generation funding levels have at last been authorized to support STEM- related workforce education and training. At the same time, the new industrial policy package integrates progressive workforce development concepts, such as a strong focus on non-college training, experiential learning, and stackable credentials. As such, the act stands out as a milestone for advancing a modern pairing of industry development and workforce training. Yet for all this promise, the CHIPS and Science Act remains an imperfect work-in-progress — the success of which will depend on sustained follow- through in such areas as funding and coordination by major employers as well as organizations such as state workforce development boards. The CHIPS and Science Act’s vision of a reinvented STEM and technical workforce system depends heavily not just on the coordination of federal agencies and programs, but also on effective collaboration among key state and regional stakeholders, as well as the private sector. In short, the success of Congress’ compelling workforce strategy hinges on interagency links and sub- national implementors. Mark Muro, Senior Fellow, Brookings MetroNext >