< Previous SITE SELECTION MARCH 2025 17 There will always be risks, both macro and micro. The impact of risk on investment decisions has never been greater than during the last decade … until now and President Trump’s second term. Policy Influences on Site Selection MNCs are cash-rich due to a strong global economy and stock market performance over the past few years. Companies have been worried about global and domestic events and have not employed much of that “dry powder” on acquisitions or greenfield expansions. A crucial factor delaying investment decisions in 2024 was the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential elections and the next administration’s actions. Trump 2 has arrived and, as promised during the election, he and his team are moving quickly to make campaign pledges a reality. To date he has doled out executive orders more frequently than former President Ronald Reagan handed out Jelly Belly candies to his White House guests. These decrees have been domestically focused. The speed at which they’ve been launched and lack of clarity on how they may be implemented has caused fear and angst over how these policies may impact companies’ U.S. or global investment decisions. The Trump tariff strategy seems to be one of threatening in order to achieve a negotiated settlement. Witness Canada and Mexico. Failure to do so results in the quick launch of tariffs followed by a reciprocal imposition of taxes and/or duties from the targeted nation. For example, after the February launch of a 10% duty on all imported Chinese goods, China’s immediate response was to launch 15% and 10% duties on imported U.S. gas and oil, respectively. China also launched retaliations such as investigating Google for violating antitrust laws and black-listing PVH Corp, the owner of the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands, for “discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises.” A big question in Asia is whether tariffs will expand to nations beyond China. India’s President Narendra Modi will certainly look to strengthen his ties with the new Trump administration. He does not want U.S. policy to slow down India’s economy, which has been growing at more than 5% per year. He also does not want anything to impede the emergence of India as a global manufacturing investment destination due to its lower-cost, highly skilled, English-speaking technical work force and potential domestic demand. Southeast Asian nations like Thailand and Vietnam have been destinations for Chinese investors relocating or expanding from China. These countries hope they are not targeted under a country-of-origin review, or tariffs directed at the Chinese investors exporting from ASEAN to the U.S. The use of tariffs is not new and evaluating the impact of tariffs has always been a key component to site selection. The only difference from the past is that today, instead of only analyzing the cost impact of existing tariffs — such as India’s relatively high import duties on goods — there needs to be a detailed sensitivity analysis of the cost impact of potential tariffs weighed against the probability of these duties being implemented. The Trump administration may make an isolationist turn promoting reshoring of all manufacturing to the U.S., attempting to decouple not only from China, but other nations that hold positive trade balances with the U.S. While theoretically plausible, in a world where supply Despite some labor and supply chain headaches, TSMC Arizona continues to post dozens of new job openings at its planned $65 billion, multi-fab complex in Phoenix and reports early high-volume production has begun “with a yield rate comparable to its advanced fabs in Taiwan.” Photos courtesy of TSMC Arizona18 MARCH 2025 SITE SELECTION chains are globally integrated, it is impossible to implement. If implemented, at what cost? And can the U.S. labor force support a high level of manufacturing reshoring? Current U.S. immigration policy could negatively impact FDI. Site selectors always include regulatory factors in their analysis. The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 and its $280 billion in investment subsidies under President Biden to target investment into the semiconductor sector has resulted in more than $450 billion in pledged investments from major semiconductor players including Intel, TSMC, Samsung and Micron. But from a site selection perspective, the incentives may have spurred investments into challenging locations. With $6.6 billion in federal incentive dollars Arizona aggressively courted and attracted TSMC and its pledged $65 billion investment. Labor shortages, regulatory delays and supply chain challenges have been documented. Then again, in its January 2025 earnings call, TSMC executives announced that TSMC Arizona had “started high-volume semiconductor production on its N4 process technology with a yield rate comparable to its advanced fabs in Taiwan,” a company timeline reports. TSMC is investing more than $5 million in on-the-job training hours and education tuition support for nearly 130 new apprentices. And as of late February, the company showed 111 positions it was hiring for in Arizona — all of them posted since the new presidential administration took office. Perhaps both the carrot and the stick have had some effect. Another example is Indonesia. As an emerging market it has long had protectionist policies on investment. As reported in the East Asia Forum in December 2024, in October 2025 Indonesia banned the sale of Apple phones due to Apple not meeting the minimum 40% local content rule. Indonesia then strong-armed Apple to commit to a manufacturing investment of at first $10 million, then $100 million and finally a pledge for $1 billion. Apple’s long-term suppliers are all scrambling to find sites to meet Apple’s commitment. (Meanwhile, Apple in late February committed to investing $500 billion in the United States.) Most of the world, from executives to economists to media pundits on both sides of the U.S. political aisle, is taking a wait-and-see approach on the Trump administration. While this may be a reasonable response in the short term, for publicly listed companies needing to report quarterly, a wait-and- see approach will only hinder them from achieving their growth goals and impede them from hitting quarterly forecasts. Do Not Just Wait and See In today’s heightened era of uncertainty, what should MNCs do now as they look to invest in locations near-market with more highly automated and technically driven plants? The move away from a free trade-focused world to one where tariffs look like they are here to stay necessitates that MNCs broaden their location analysis: 1. Identify the location of the market centers for the greatest demand. 2. Undertake a global manufacturing footprint optimization of existing operations. a. Determine if any of these manufacturing plants are restricted or hampered from serving these geographic market centers by tariffs or regulations. 3. Determine if there are gaps in the global footprint and which market centers need an in- market or near-market manufacturing facility. 4. Conduct a rigorous site selection analysis in that market center geography. 5. Include in the business modeling a dynamic sensitivity analysis to evaluate the probability and impact of current and projected risks to your business. Global uncertainty is not going away soon. Whether it is the Trump effect and its unpredictability, or regulatory changes by the government in one of your biggest markets or manufacturing locations, today’s global trend of isolationism is likely to impact existing or planned investments. MNCs cannot wait around. They need to make decisions on the best locations to place their investments to continue to meet forecast growth and financial targets. The events of the past 10 years have demonstrated that MNCs need to be increasingly diligent in their investment and site selection analysis. This ensures that executives are making informed decisions. The next four years and beyond will see a continuation of this era of uncertainty. Make sure the business location strategy is ready. John J. Evans is co-founder and managing director of Tractus Asia Ltd., which has assisted companies in navigating the complexities of Asian expansion for 25 years. For more information, visit tractus-asia.com. SITE SELECTION MARCH 2025 19 T he Tax Foundation in January updated a map of statutory corporate income tax rates across European OECD and EU countries. Six of the lowest rates were in countries located in Central and Eastern Europe, led by Hungary with a % rate and Bulgaria at %. How correlated are corporate facility investment and low corporate income tax rates? Between January and mid- February , those six countries have welcomed more than major corporate end-user facility investment projects, according to Site Selection’s Conway Projects Database. Here is how the totals break down: Sometimes the low-tax countries are pitted against one another. Such is the case with Belgium’s Avesta Battery & Energy Engineering, which in had announced a billion-dollar-plus advanced lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cell plant in Romania, but by June had decided “to end its collaboration on the project in Romania” and locate the -gigawatt-hour factory in a yet- to-be-determined location in one of two other countries. “As the facility scales, it is projected to reach a capacity of GWh, positioning ABEE at the forefront of the European battery revolution,” the company said. “ABEE’s decision on the gigafactory location will be infl uenced by factors such as infrastructure, workforce availability and governmental support. e company aims to fi nalize the location in the coming months and commence construction shortly thereafter.” e project is separate and distinct from a plan announced in December by Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov and Avesta CEO Noshin Omar that involves an investment of €. billion over the next three years in a gigafactory in Stara Zagora, a recycling facility in Burgas and an R&D hub in Plovdiv. e overall project, dubbed “BulgaPower,” is projected to launch with a capacity of gigawatt- hours, expandable to gigawatt-hours at full capacity. Omar, a former professor at the Free University of Brussels, founded the company in . e company’s only other location besides Belgium is a battery plant in TIDZ Kichevo, one of free economic zones in North Macedonia, where construction kicked off in December. According to the government’s release, Avesta CEO Aleksandar Golaboski said the initial investment of € million, creating to jobs, is projected to expand to € million and as many as new jobs. Among the most recent projects to land in Hungary is a -job EV plant from China’s Xinzhi. It’s the latest in a series of major Chinese corporate investments in the Hungarian EV supply chain, including two battery plants from CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) in Debrecen’s Southern Economic Zone (the fi rst coming online in ) and BYD’s fi rst European vehicle plant in Szeged, which is expected to assemble its fi rst car by November . EASTERN EUROPE by ADAM BRUNS adam.bruns@siteselection.com Eastern Europe Electrifi es COUNTRYPROJECTS SINCECORPORATE TAX RATE JANUARY 2023 Poland 132 19% Hungary 91 9% (lowest in Europe) Romania 75 16% Lithuania 30 16% Bulgaria 23 10% (2nd lowest in Europe) Croatia 21 18% Map by miniature: Getty Images20 MARCH 2025 SITE SELECTION WORLD REPORTS by ALEXIS ELMORE alexis.elmore@siteselection.com Micron Expands in Singapore M icron Technology has begun construction on its latest High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) advanced packaging plant, which will be the fi rst of its kind in Singapore. The new $7 billion site was strategically located near the company’s current operations in the country in order to strengthen Singapore’s semiconductor industry. “As AI adoption proliferates across industries, the demand for advanced memory and storage solutions will continue to increase robustly,” said Micron President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra. The facility is expected to become operational in 2026, creating 1,400 jobs with the potential to grow to 3,000 following future expansion. In line with the demands of AI growth, Micron already has plans for future expansion following the beginning of operations. Explosive Investment Meets Demand F inland-based explosives company FORCIT plans to deliver a much-needed supply of trinitrotoluene (TNT) by constructing a new production facility in Pori, Finland. The company plans to invest $255 million in the site, meeting rising demands for ammunition as a result of the confl ict between Ukraine and Russia. “Investing in Finland is an investment in increasing the safety and security of not only Finland but also Europe as a whole,” said FORCIT CEO Joakim Westerlund. The project’s announcement is supported by the country’s defense administration, authorities and local communities. It is reported that TNT explosives produced at the plant will meet projected needs from 2028 to 2037 for the Finnish Defense Forces. State-owned private equity company Tesi is sorting out plans to additionally invest in the facility. Limited TNT production capacity in Europe has sparked new explosives production facility investment in Finland. Photo: Getty Images Micron Technology is growing its operations in Singapore with a new high-bandwidth memory plant to be located near current production facilities. Photo courtesy of Micron A City Purpose-Built for Innovation T oyota Motor Corporation has announced the completion of the initial phase of Toyota Woven City, which is the company’s test course for future mobility. The futuristic “city” is being constructed at a former Toyota manufacturing site in Susono City, located in Japan’s Shizuoka Prefecture. Phase one introduced buildings hosting co-creation activities for about 360 “inventors” that include Toyota, Toyota Group companies, external companies, startups and entrepreneurs who will be the fi rst to live at the site, starting in late 2025. Phase two has moved forward with site preparations, which will allow for total population to reach 2,000 in years to come. “Woven City off ers a unique environment equipped with the tools and services needed to tackle societal challenges and create future-focused value,” the company said in its press release. “Through collaboration among inventors and feedback from residents and visitors, Woven City aims to drive innovation and shape a better tomorrow.” Toyota’s human-centered city looks to empower future mobility transformation. Photo courtesy of Toyota Motor Corporation SITE SELECTION MARCH 2025 21 New Solution For Waste S pain-based energy company Repsol has plans to invest nearly $850 million to establish a renewable methanol plant in the port city of Tarragona in Spain’s Catalonia region. The Tarragona Ecoplant will be the fi rst European plant to produce renewable and circular methanol from waste, using the most advanced waste valorization process. Its location was selected due to the region’s availability of infrastructure and Tarragona’s position as a central chemical hub. The company anticipates processing more than 400,000 tons of municipal solid waste per year at the facility, producing 240,000 tons of renewable fuels and circular products. The project not only provides solutions for reducing CO2 emissions within the transport sector but works to promote Europe’s circular economy. Repsol’s project is expected to begin operations in 2029, creating 340 direct jobs. Repsol will convert waste from landfi lls into renewable methanol through a gasifi cation process. Photo courtesy of Repsol Expansion Investment Injected in Ireland G E Healthcare has returned to its contrast media fi ll-and-fi nish manufacturing site in Cork, Ireland, with a $138 million expansion on the books. The Carrigtohill site will help the company produce 25 million more patient doses per year of injectable diagnostic imaging agents used to visualize organs, blood vessels and tissues. Global demand for iodine-based contrast media is estimated to double within the next decade, creating the need for the new 32,000-sq.-ft.-plus facility. “This expansion strengthens our longstanding presence in Cork, where we have a highly skilled team, access to leading talent in the pharmaceutical industry, strong distribution links around the world and a great partnership with IDA Ireland,” said GE Healthcare Ireland Managing Director Eugene Barrett. “First doses from our new facility are expected by the end of 2027 and we are proud of the impact our site will continue to make for patients around the world.” The new site will feature a new fi lling line and autoclaves, multifunctional powder handling systems, solution preparation vessels and advanced automation systems. Africa faces serious challenges — from volatile global markets and high debt costs to infrastructure gaps. These challenges are also a chance to reshape the continent’s economic future. With bold reforms, investment and full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, Africa can emerge stronger, more resilient, and more competitive.” — UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan in “Economic Development in Africa Report 2024,” on why Africa should diversify its exports, promote intra-African trade, invest in transportation infrastructure and incentivize industrialization within the continent GE Healthcare plans growth at its contrast media manufacturing site in Cork, Ireland. Photo courtesy of Business Wire and GE Photo courtesy of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Africa faces serious challenges — from volatile global markets and high debt costs to INVESTMENT PROFILE: SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA Airport Growth Fuels Economic Expansion New investments bring jobs and prosperity to multiple communities in San Bernardino County. A Bernardino County in Southern California; it is ingrained into the strategy and mission of those who lead the airports in this Inland Empire jurisdiction of . million people. To understand just exactly how important this vision is for the county, all you have to do is look at the mission statement for Ontario International Airport, the busiest airport in the region: “To boldly seize every opportunity to connect the Inland Empire to the world.” To be “Bernardino” means to be “as bold as a bear.” It is written into the county’s name and character. Atif Elkadi, CEO of Ontario International Airport (ONT), says his airport is fulfi lling this mission in multiple ways. ONT generates an annual economic impact of $. billion and creates , jobs. “Since our return to local ownership on November , , we have been steadily growing our air passenger service and our air cargo service,” says Elkadi. “As of this month, we are up % in total passengers served from , serving over million passengers in . at is .% more than . We recently achieved consecutive months of year-over-year growth. We have added direct fl ights to Nashville, Atlanta and other major cities.” Business leaders are taking note. ONT ranks No. in North America in annual air cargo. UPS, Amazon and FedEx maintain signifi cant operations at ONT, and each is growing. “You can’t overstate the impact of local ownership,” Elkadi says. “We’ve been able to restore ONT’s role as a Southern California gateway. Our commitment is unwavering. We are determined to create an experience unlike any other in Southern by 22 MARCH 2025 SITE SELECTION Photo courtesy of ONT SITE SELECTION MARCH 2025 23 California. We’ve been able to add fl ights and service, invest millions of dollars in restaurants and amenities, and register fl yers for Global Entry.” Ontario passengers used to have to drive to LAX or other airports to sign up. Now they can join Global Entry at ONT. “Something that simple has really made a diff erence,” says Elkadi. Elkadi is just as intent on expanding business support at ONT. “We executed a -year ground lease in to develop a -acre site directly across the street from the airport,” he notes. “A master-planned logistics park is going in there. at has amplifi ed our role. Around $. billion a year in economic activity is generated through the logistics industry of the Inland Empire. We want to make sure it keeps growing.” He adds that “our outlook mirrors that of the region. is area keeps off ering new things — and we do too. We’re off ering fl ights from Ontario to Baltimore for the fi rst time through Southwest Airlines. With our growing popularity, we’re projected to reach million passengers by .” ONT is far from alone in increasing air service and economic impact. In fact, throughout San Bernardino County, ONT has plenty of company. It starts with San Bernardino International Airport (SBD) in the City of San Bernardino and extends all the way up Interstate to Victorville in the High Desert and beyond. Most Aff ordable Place to Fly Mike Burrows, CEO of SBD, presides over an airport that was home to Norton Air Force Base for years until it was shut down in as part of the Base Realignment and Closure operation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Today, SBD serves commercial air passengers through Breeze Airways and provides one of the most robust air cargo operations in the country. “Last year, we had over , direct jobs producing over $. billion in economic impact,” says Burrows. “ at is up from the , jobs we had in . We are ranked No. in the country in air cargo, and in , we were named the most aff ordable airport in the nation by the U.S. Department of Transportation.” Passengers at SBD pay, on average, just $. per fare. Burrows adds that “we pride ourselves on access and convenience to Southern California. We retain the convenience of a hometown airport. When you’re here, you feel at home. For example, it costs just $ a day to park your car at our domestic terminal. We have not changed our fee since day one. It is a way to say ‘thank you’ to our customers and enhance your curb-to-gate experience. And our parking is covered. You are literally across the street from the terminal. e rental car counter is only yards away. We are wired that way, and that formula has worked well for us since we launched domestic air service in . We focus on trying to right-size the product to the customer.” Breeze off ers direct fl ights to San Francisco and Provo, Utah, and a service called “Breeze- rough” to Salt Lake City. e real business of SBD, though, is found in the cargo hold. “ e cargo story is pretty special,” Burrows says. “We’ve always had itinerant cargo. UPS put us on the map in when they began operating here. FedEx followed in , and Amazon Air followed that in . As these companies enjoy success, we enjoy success. Each has incrementally expanded operations. ey have room to grow.” SBD serves as the SoCal hub for Amazon Air, while UPS and FedEx continue to expand their network at the airport. SBD serves both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft, including the , , and A. “Longer runways enable this,” notes Burrows. “We made strategic investments in the mid-s. Today, our ,-foot runway can handle the world’s largest aircraft, and it does.” We’ve been able to restore ONT’s role as a Southern California gateway. Our commitment is unwavering.” — Atif Elkadi, CEO, Ontario International Airport We’ve been able to restore ONT’s 24 MARCH 2025 SITE SELECTION Expansion plans include growing the international freight forwarding business, says Burrows. “We are proud to have a four-gate facility. We are master planned to go up to gates. We try to think ahead the best we can.” City Airports Play Key Roles Brett Godown, director of airports for the county’s airport system, presides over a growing network of air service. As the countywide administrator for the municipal airfi elds, Godown oversees operations at the smaller city airports in Apple Valley, Baker, Barstow-Daggett, Chino, Needles and Twentynine Palms. e county recently released a Request for Qualifi cations (RFQ) for the development of acres of vacant land at Chino Airport in conjunction with Jones Lang LaSalle, Inc. (JLL). is includes acres on the south side of Chino Airport. e goal is to recruit more aeronautical business. “We have built up a community on the south side of the airport,” says Godown. “ ere will be multiplier and spillover eff ects for the community. ere will be alignment with aeronautical needs at the airport and FAA requirements. We are excited to do this.” Godown adds that “the development will benefi t everyone around the airport. Southern California Edison had to bring large amounts of utilities to the site. Other utilities will be improved on site too. ey are expanding Merrill Avenue on the north side of the airport. It will become four lanes in each direction. is improves amenities for everyone in the community. As we develop Chino Airport, this community becomes more competitive regionally. People will want to move here because of that asset; and businesses are attracted to these areas.” Countywide, the six airports support , “operations” or fl ights, says Godown. “Cargo is on the rise at Chino. We have just-in-time deliveries from the Port of Los Angeles to Detroit. One of our operators charters these fl ights.” Barstow-Daggett, Twentynine Palms and Chino are all former military air bases. Having the six municipal airports helps with travel across a county of , square miles. “San Bernardino County is the largest county by land mass in the country,” Last year, San Bernardino International Airport had over 18,100 direct jobs producing over $4.8 billion in economic impact. Source: San Bernardino County Photo courtesy of SBD SITE SELECTION MARCH 2025 25 This Investment Profile was prepared under the auspices of San Bernardino County. For more information, contact the County’s Economic Development Department at 909-387-4460. On the web, go to www.SelectSBCounty.com. SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES SAN DIEGO notes Godown. “It is literally a four-hour drive across the county. Needles is on the Arizona border. Baker is in the middle of Barstow and the state line.” Each plays a role in supporting county needs. Godown adds that the county is “looking at other economic growth opportunities on vacant land at the desert airports. We are looking at renewable energy possibilities at Barstow and Apple Valley. We will soon do a strategic plan for the entire county airport system. There is a lot going on here in the next year.” High Impact in the High Desert Speaking of aerial growth blooming in the desert, Victorville is sprouting wings too. The Southern California Logistics Airport there is enjoying something of a renaissance. The old George Air Force Base is now the largest employment center in Victor Valley with more than 4,500 jobs at 62 businesses including Fortune 500 firms like Boeing and GE Aviation. “With on-airport and off-airport development, SCLA serves manufacturing, warehousing, aviation and aerospace companies in one location,” says Sue Jones, public information officer for the City of Victorville. “SCLA’s on-airport operations cater to the entire aircraft lifecycle including flight testing and aircraft maintenance, painting, recycling and asset management. Currently, 99% of the tenantable space on the airport is occupied.” Off airport, industrial development is taking off at even greater velocity. As of December 2024, some 7 million sq. ft. of industrial space have been built at SCLA for manufacturing and warehousing operations at firms like Keurig Dr. Pepper, Amazon, Plastipak, Mars and Graco. The biggest burst of activity occurred in 2022 when 2.8 million sq. ft. of industrial space was built, including a new Amazon fulfillment center, two warehouses for Iron Mountain and a warehouse for Mars Petcare. Looking ahead, Prologis is developing a 1.3-million-sq.-ft. facility for Goodyear Tire just north of Amazon, and Covington is set to begin construction on the first of three large industrial buildings on Parcel J where the old golf course was located. Upon completion, this project will feature 2.5 million sq. ft. of new space. Photo courtesy of ONTNext >