Investor Watch: November 29, 2021

A new study released last week by a team at MIT documents the factors driving more than 5,000 migrants to the U.S. from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, and where they ended up locating. “Charting a New Regional Course of Action: The Complex Motivations and Costs of Central American Migration,” is the product of a collaboration among the UN’s World Food Program (WFP); the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), a nonpartisan think tank; and MIT’s Civic Data Design Lab.

“At the heart of what’s causing migration is that people don’t have enough money to provide for their basic needs,” said Sarah Williams, an MIT professor who helped produce the report. The urge to migrate has ratcheted upward since the pandemic’s onset: About 43% of people surveyed in 2021 were considering migrating, compared to 8% in 2019, an MIT release states. “That change comes as food insecurity in the region soars: The WFP estimates that 6.4 million people in the three countries were suffering from food insecurity in 2021, up from 2.2 million in 2019.” Survey respondents cited low wages, unemployment and minimal income levels as factors increasing their desire to emigrate — ahead of reasons such as violence or natural disasters.

In contrast to the 43% of people who were considering migrating, only 3% of respondents said they had made concrete plans to migrate (though 23% of those experiencing food insecurity had made concrete plans to leave). “One likely reason more people do not migrate is cost,” the release stated. “An estimated 1.8 million Central Americans have attempted to migrate in the past five years, costing them collectively about $2.2 billion per year, which is equal to about one-tenth of Honduras’ annual GDP.”

At 5.6 million sq. ft., Mall of America, which opened in 1992, is located in Bloomington, Minnesota, adjacent to MSP International Airport. It is the largest shopping and entertainment complex in North America with more than 520 retail stores and restaurants; the Nickelodeon Universe indoor theme park (pictured); and SEA LIFE Minnesota Aquarium.

CBRE Retail Property Management surveyed personnel at 16 of the malls and large-format retail centers that it manages across the U.S. (not including Mall of America) and found that foot traffic and sales were up, with most centers meeting or exceeding 2019 traffic numbers, and more than half reporting sales equal to or exceeding 2019. Popular categories were shoes, cosmetics and apparel. The latter was a major traffic draw with steep discounts.

“The feedback from our retail centers shows that people are more comfortable gathering this year and their activity will be a boost to not only retailers, but entertainment outlets such as theaters and restaurants,” said Brandon Isner, head of Americas Retail Research for CBRE, in a release this morning. “This narrative is backed up by data illustrating that retail foot traffic has steadily increased throughout October. Although consumer sentiment has taken a dip, retail sales remain strong. Supply chain issues may hamper smaller retailers, but inventory likely won’t be a problem for larger retailers with purchasing power.”