he U.S. transportation industry will experience yet another year of solid growth in 2006, led largely by gains in the trucking sector, according to a report released Nov. 22 by an Atlanta-based consulting firm that tracks and predicts global logistics trends.
The ground parcel and less-than-truckload (LTL) categories are projected to experience shipment growth of 5.1 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, over 2005 levels, according to The Colography Group. These two categories combined will account for 86 percent of all new expedited shipping growth in 2006, as more than 250 million new shipments will be added to U.S. expedited commerce in the coming year.
The report, titled “U.S. Expedited Cargo Market Projections for 2006,” also predicts muted growth in the domestic air shipping market, with shipment volumes by air expected to rise only 1.2 percent over 2005 activity. The U.S. air export category, meanwhile, will record a 7.3 percent increase.
“The secular factors driving traffic off airplanes and on to trucks will remain intact in 2006,” said Ted Scherck, president of The Colography Group. “Businesses are increasingly reluctant to pay a premium for overnight air service and continue to build their inventory and distribution models around more economical, time-definite deliveries moving in ground parcel, LTL and truckload, including renewed interest in private fleets. It is revealing that the fastest growing segment of air transport, projected at 2 percent year-over-year shipment growth, is in the second-day air package category.”
Among other findings, The Colography Group stated:
• The continuing high cost of crude oil will force carriers to maintain fuel surcharges and will become an increasingly important factor in supply-chain decision-making. The surface shipment sector will benefit as air activity is disproportionately affected by the more pronounced and more volatile rise in jet fuel prices.
• Revenue from LTL shipments
 |
should increase by 11 percent in 2006, due in part to the impact of rapidly rising fuel surcharges. Revenue for the average LTL shipment is projected to climb 7 percent, more than double the projected rate of revenue increases for domestic air, air export and ground parcel.
• Total U.S. expedited commerce revenue will reach $97.9 billion in 2006, up 7.6 percent from 2005.