EDITOR’S VIEW

es, 2009 has barely begun, but in economic terms it already looks a lot like 2008. So let’s pick another year to think about for a moment – like 2020.

      In mid-December, I came across a survey organized by Capgemini and IDG Global Solutions, two well regarded consulting firms. It asked 152 senior-level executives involved in strategic decision making how they thought manufacturing industries would be different in 2020. The respondents are from manufacturing companies in the U.S., U.K., China, France, Germany, India, Sweden and the Netherlands. They represent four industrial sectors – general manufacturing (40 percent of respondents); automotive, aerospace and defense (16 percent); high tech (20 percent); and chemicals, steel, industrials and medical devices (24 percent).

      The findings are somewhat general, but they’re worth bearing in mind next time you’re in a strategic planning discussion with peers and superiors. Here are some highlights:

      Collaboration with suppliers and customers will be much more pervasive in 2020, and most respondents think it will occur earlier in the product lifecycle than it does today. The Indian, U.K. and Swedish respondents claim to be collaborating with customers at the R&D level already; the other respondents anticipate more of that activity. Working with suppliers is at a more mature phase across the board, and that will continue to be the case in 2020. Supplier parks near automotive plants are already commonplace.

      Digitized manufacturing (integrated use of computer-aided design, computerized numerical control and other systems) will make new inroads in some markets and less in others. But globalization of manufacturing operations will be more widespread than today with companies wanting to be nearer the raw materials end of the supply chain. But some see a countertrend.

      “A small proportion see a future where they will have withdrawn from international operations to manufacture in one country alone … we can only surmise that these people feel that by 2020 the advantages of production in lower-cost countries will have been eroded and been replaced by greater concerns about the side effects of manufacturing such as on domestic employment and the environment,” reads a passage of the survey findings.

      There is no consensus on where the next manufacturing base or bases will be; China and India still score high as the likely beneficiaries of new plant investment. Possible locations of new operations mentioned by respondents include Cambodia, Thailand and parts of Africa.

      Finally, emission reduction and energy price volatility will be even bigger issues in 2020 than they are today, and may well influence where a company can – or cannot – build the facility it needs. But don’t look for easy answers, as the report makes clear: “Lack of coherent regulation has left manufacturers in a quandary about green issues, but as political pressure increases around emission reduction, urgent action will be required to reach 2020 targets.”

      Now, back to 2009.

      Till next time,

      Mark Arend