Investor Watch: March 11, 2024

AIRPORT CITIES

Aerotropolis experts John D. Kasarda and Michael Chen explain why in this exclusive contribution.

INVESTMENT PROFILE: PANAMA

CHIPs Act funding could take the longtime U.S.-Panama relationship in an exciting new direction.

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Senior Editor Gary Daughters has followed the risky path of EV startup Rivian from the beginning, starting in Illinois in 2017 with the presciently titled “The Rivian Gambit.” Last week the electric pickup truck maker said it was pausing construction at its planned $5 billion plant east of Atlanta, Georgia, to move production of its R2 model to the Illinois plant beginning in the first half of 2026. Rivian’s 7,500-job Georgia plant was originally announced in December 2021.

A March 4 release announcing plans for the company’s R2 and R3 models took until the 19th paragraph to mention the shift in plans, noting that capacity in Normal would reach 215,000 units a year and the move would save the company $2.25 billion. “Rivian’s Georgia plant remains an extremely important part of its strategy to scale production of R2 and R3,” Rivian stated, not mentioning the pause in Georgia construction before noting that the timing for resuming construction “is expected to be later” in order to “focus its teams on the capital-efficient launch of R2 in Normal, Illinois.”

The company launched an apprenticeship program in Georgia last fall, and has made two payments totaling $3 million as part of its payment-in-lieu-of-taxes arrangement with  the Joint Development Authority (JDA) of Jasper, Morgan, Newton, and Walton Counties. Altogether the company’s proposed plant is set to receive $1.5 billion in state and local incentives, part of a deal that has stayed together despite legal challenges documented by Daughters 16 months ago.

Situation Not Normal: Landowners opposed from the beginning to the Rivian plant in Georgia now get to stare at the red Georgia soil of a paused construction site.

Photo by Adam Bruns

Alexis Elmore updates us on an $11 billion chip fab JV in India; Microsoft’s extensive data center buildup in the UK and a major project in the Palmetto State supporting the U.S. Navy.

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Think tariffs and sanctions are hurting China’s economy? A new forecast from Oxford Economics says industrial production there “is set to post robust growth this year thanks to state-driven investment, supply-side stimulus, and a boost in ‘green’ manufacturing. Its performance will outstrip the United States and an anemic expansion in Europe, and raises the prospect of renewed tensions between East and West.” Output growth of 5% for the second year in a row from the country’s industrial giants (alongside 1.4% in the U.S. and 1.1% in the EU and UK) will combine with an upturn in the semiconductor cycle to “underpin a forecast acceleration in global industrial output growth to 2.7% in 2024 from just 1.8% last year.”

“China is expected to retain its momentum in the green and high-tech sectors,” said Oxford Economics Lead Economist Sean Metcalfe. “Should strong growth in price-competitive exports in these sectors persist, trade tensions between China and the West could result in tariff escalation, which represents a downside risk for trade, global industrial activity, and the energy transition.”

Aldabra, a prime example of a raised coral atoll, was designated a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 1982. The channels connecting the lagoon and outer reef offer a route for coral larvae to reach the open ocean.

Photo by Christophe Mason-Parker

Researchers at another Oxford — Oxford University — today published in the journal Scientific Reports findings that among remote coral reefs scattered across more than 1 million square kilometers (386,102 square miles) in the Seychelles, a network of ocean currents scatter significant numbers of larvae, acting as a “coral superhighway.” “This discovery is very important because a key factor in coral reef recovery is larval supply,” said the study’s lead author Dr. April Burt, who serves the Department of Biology at the University of Oxford and the Seychelles Islands Foundation. “Although corals have declined alarmingly across the world due to climate change and a number of other factors, actions can be taken at local and national scale to improve reef health and resilience.”